Beyond 1.5 Degrees of Global Warming

by Jose Luis Gallego, environmental communicator (@ecogallego)

In 2024, the average global temperature exceeded 1.5ºC of warming for the first time. Humanity is moving into an unprecedented climate scenario.

Verified scientific data shows that the planet experienced unprecedented daily, monthly, and annual record temperatures, making 2024 the hottest year globally in recorded history. 

This was the first year in which the average global temperature exceeded 1.5ºC compared to the period 1850–1900, considered the “pre-industrial level”. More specifically, it rose 0.72ºC above the average of the previous decade. Furthermore, the average temperature was 0.12ºC higher than its counterpart in 2023 – the previously hottest year on record. In fact, the ten hottest years in recorded history correspond to the last decade.

Dry, cracked earth as a result of prolonged drought

In terms of months, all months in 2024, except for June, were the hottest ever recorded. June was the second hottest after June 2023. And the trend continues: as experts predicted, 2025 began in the same vein, with the first month of the year going down as the hottest January in history.  

In terms of days, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ranked 22 July 2024 as the hottest day in history since record-keeping began, marking a new record in average global temperature: 17.16°C. 

The total amount of water vapour accumulated in the atmosphere also beat all previous records, reaching levels that were 5% higher than the average. This exceeds the two previous records (2016 and 2023) by 1%. According to scientists, this is the reason behind some of the most violent meteorological phenomena of 2024, including the DANA storm in Valencia. The extraordinary intensity of these phenomena can only be explained by the climate change scenario we are currently in.

In fact, reports issued after the tragedy in Valencia show that one of the primary causes for the scale and extreme severity of the rainstorms that hit Valencia and other areas is the constant and pronounced rise in temperatures in the Mediterranean. Sea warming, as the IPCC reports underscore, is “super-charging” the atmosphere, thereby increasing the intensity of traditional cold fronts, a mainstay of the Mediterranean climate, and causing far more severe and destructive storms. 

Globally, last year also saw average sea surface temperatures reach yet another historic maximum: 20.87°C, more than half a degree higher than the average recorded in 2023.  In the Balearic Islands, the water temperature reached 31.87ºC on 12 August – interestingly this also represents an increase of more than half a degree over the previous record in 2022. Putting all of these statistics together, a clear picture emerges: we are facing a climate emergency on a global scale.

The sea ice extension around the Antarctic once again retreated to historic lows during much of 2024. In the Arctic, the sea ice cover remained relatively stable until July when it retreated rapidly until its extent was far below the average of the subsequent months, making this the fifth lowest extension on record.

In Europe, 2024 was the hottest year in recorded history with an average temperature of 10.7ºC: 1.47ºC above the average and, even more significantly, 0.28ºC warmer than the previous record, reached only four years ago. The summer was especially hot, exceeding the average by 1.54ºC.

What experts who monitor the evolution of the climate crisis point out time and again is true: the Earth has undergone many climate changes throughout its 4.5-billion-year existence, but never with us living on it.  

Grapevine against blue sky

Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have already reached 422.5 parts per million (ppm). Humans have never lived under an atmosphere with such high levels. And we know that these high concentrations are largely due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions (GGE) resulting from the incessant burning of fossil fuels: natural gas, oil, and coal. 

The Copernicus Climate Change Service – the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme – coincides with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA in stating that anthropogenic climate change – in other words, climate change caused by human activities – was the main cause for the extreme air and sea surface temperatures in 2024, whereas other factors, like the El Niño phenomenon, initiated a shift towards more neutral conditions.

The climate crisis is moving towards the worst-case scenarios that experts have predicted: those in which GGE emissions are not contained and decreased, but continue rising. In fact, emissions from the burning of fossil fuels increased by 0.8% in 2024 compared to 2023, a year in which they also saw an increase. Abandoning the use of fossil fuels remains crucial to solving this crisis. Not in decreasing their use, but in abandoning them entirely. Whether this will be possible in the current political climate is an open question. We live in times of uncertainty.